Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 15.582130 17.765976 20.106300 22.796234 25.797810 29.039225 32.799582
2025-08-24 12.253759 15.215413 18.625836 22.824548 27.834380 33.599217 40.712381
2025-08-31 10.397617 13.647990 17.568526 22.610650 28.884402 36.391908 46.009509
2025-09-07 9.117463 12.579393 16.931313 22.747825 30.254510 39.546008 51.836899
2025-09-14 8.340607 12.009515 16.786760 23.382262 32.158036 43.328271 58.498580
2025-09-21 7.389372 11.087163 16.067245 23.158174 32.868526 45.555790 63.213060
2025-09-28 6.340401 9.908220 14.875169 22.163123 32.424587 46.172396 65.756859
2025-10-05 5.953693 9.629301 14.890886 22.807154 34.212895 49.812338 72.462357
2025-10-12 5.561913 9.298265 14.791487 23.255801 35.719540 53.099832 78.789663
2025-10-19 5.058645 8.745422 14.313745 23.101459 36.325084 55.122734 83.400365
2025-10-26 4.597801 8.213415 13.819120 22.872531 36.782493 56.921758 87.727870
2025-11-02 4.249247 7.829098 13.517563 22.904895 37.609252 59.262276 92.896458
2025-11-09 3.957825 7.521105 13.323596 23.105637 38.722376 62.103500 98.969965
2025-11-16 3.643799 7.145697 12.991494 23.060678 39.444915 64.384030 104.296068
2025-11-23 3.336707 6.751349 12.593157 22.870482 39.907854 66.261872 109.050663
2025-11-30 3.115886 6.491518 12.400013 22.999971 40.876049 68.938103 115.103430
2025-12-07 2.998689 6.412793 12.511448 23.643848 42.703878 73.014505 123.456550
2025-12-14 2.756171 6.072106 12.133563 23.416416 43.064615 74.766124 128.203933
2025-12-21 2.425745 5.526749 11.344186 22.411969 42.052733 74.254038 129.307656
2025-12-28 2.349473 5.485104 11.478735 23.062207 43.897451 78.449304 138.118009
2026-01-04 2.252254 5.391050 11.506475 23.515310 45.412574 82.145874 146.225613
2026-01-11 2.088216 5.140485 11.215775 23.359436 45.840145 84.034473 151.407890
2026-01-18 1.929274 4.885396 10.896955 23.128265 46.114667 85.663136 156.195882